No matter what the Obama administration might do, the oncoming Fall elections will mark the beginning of a gridlock period in Washington’s politics.
“The democrats are going to lose some of their representatives in Congress”, said Noruiel Roubini, reknown economist and political analyst, founder of one of the most important think tank, New York-based Roubini Global Economics (RGE). “And that’s just the best of all scenarios: Obama might as well find himself with a Congress dominated by the GOP.” Either way, then, the White House is going to have a hard time in governing the country. In a time when certainty of political guideline is what is needed the most.
“Second half 2010 will see a slow donw of the economy, whose growth rate will decrease from an already very low 1.2% in the first half to below 1% in the second half. It will not be called recession, rather a growth recession.” Which happens to be just the same, as a matter of fact. And what counts more, people will feel just the same, and the widespread idea will be of a recession hitting the economy. With what consequences, we all can easily imagine.
To make it worse, next year the US will experience a tax drag. “Most stimulus actions the Obama admnistration has activated over the past one and a half years are going to expire by end of 2010. They cannot be renewed. And they will translate into a tax drag”, over already stressed tax-payers.
2011, then, will be a very hard year, with political clash between the Obama administration and the Congress, where the GOP will either enjoy a majority in both Houses or have such numbers it could impose long and exhausting dealings to the White House.